Longitudinal gompertzian analysis of mortality from prostate cancer in Japan, 1955-1996.

Abstract

The purpose of this study was to determine whether prostate cancer mortality conforms to gompertzian analysis and, if so, what conclusions can be made regarding increasing prostate cancer mortality in Japan by the application of longitudinal gompertzian analysis. Data regarding 77,492 prostate cancer deaths reported during the period 1955 to 1996 were obtained from death certificate records in Japan. Age-adjusted prostate cancer mortality rates increased 6.4-fold during that period. The changing patterns in the mortality rate was explained by a constantly increasing number of elderly people. Age-specific mortality rate distributions between the ages of 50 and 84 years were highly gompertzian for each year during that period. The environmental factor for prostate cancer mortality increased 80% for that period. Gompertzian analysis suggests that rising mortality from prostate cancer may be related to rapidly changing lifestyles among Japanese. Intake of animal proteins was the most strongly correlated parameter considered with the mortality from prostate cancer.