Epidemiological survey of the medical consequences of the Chernobyl accident in Ukraine.

Abstract

The characteristics of the contamination resulting from the Chernobyl accident are defined, as a basis for epidemiological investigations. Due to loss of integrity of the nuclear fuel and thermal buoyancy from fire and nuclear heating, a large quantity of radioisotopes were released over a period of up to 16 days. The areas affected were very large, 37 million hectares in Ukraine alone. About 5 million persons were affected in one way or another, over 2 million of them in Ukraine. For registration and follow-up of health consequences from the accident, 4 main groups were distinguished, namely: (1) the participants in the containment of the accident and its cleanup ("liquidators"); (2) evacuees; (3) residents of contaminated areas; and (4) children born to parents with significant radiation exposure. Registration and epidemiological follow-up in the former USSR and the three republics afterwards are presented with an emphasis on Ukraine. Considering the long incubation times for some of the expected illnesses and relatively low average doses, the difficulties of confirming significant effects become evident. For example leucosis morbidity among cleanup personnel within a 30 km zone around the accident was 3.4 per 100,000 before the accident and 7 per 100,000 afterwards. The question of the statistical significance of such numbers is discussed by the authors, in the context of confounding factors. For some of the observed effects it has already been established that stress and anxiety caused by the accident and living conditions in the affected areas are the principal cause rather than radiation. According to the authors, more detailed retrospective and prospective epidemiological studies are needed in the future, in order to clarify the causes of observed health effects.