A mathematical model of detection and dynamics of porcine transmissible gastroenteritis.

IF 2.5 4区医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 1994-08-01 DOI:10.1017/s0950268800051608

J Hone

引用次数: 12

Abstract

Transmissible gastroenteritis (TGE) is a viral disease causing dehydration, diarrhoea and death in pigs. The disease is widespread in pig-producing areas of the world but does not occur in Australia. A mathematical model of TGE spread within a pig herd is proposed and calibrated by reference to published data. The model is then applied to two situations of special interest; first to estimate the delay before detection of TGE (6 to over 30 days) when infection is first introduced into a herd of domestic or feral pigs, and second the effect of the disease in a population of feral pigs (could become endemic if transmission is high).

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猪传染性肠胃炎检测与动态的数学模型。

传染性胃肠炎(TGE)是一种病毒性疾病，可导致猪脱水、腹泻和死亡。这种疾病在世界上的生猪生产地区广泛传播，但没有在澳大利亚发生。本文提出了猪群中TGE传播的数学模型，并参照已发表的数据进行了校正。然后将该模型应用于两种特殊情况;首先估计首次将感染引入一群家猪或野猪时，在发现TGE之前的延迟时间(6至30多天)，其次是该疾病在一群野猪中的影响(如果传播率高，可能成为地方性疾病)。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Epidemiology and Infection 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

4.10

自引率

2.40%

发文量

366

审稿时长

3-6 weeks

期刊介绍： Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.