Short and longterm fluctuations of generational MS risk.

Abstract

According to the hypothesis that childhood is an important age stage in view of MS predisposition, alterations of MS risk may be expected in respect of generational succession. Age-period-cohort-analysis in the appropriate statistical analysis model in this connection. After having shown considerable fluctuations of generational MS risk in the long term view we have tried to derive additional informations from corresponding short term fluctuations: descriptive informations as well as results in relation to the short term fluctuations of infectious diseases' mortality. While applying again age-period-cohort-analysis the results are questioned by the fact that the underlying cohort estimates represent 5-years-moving-averages. Computerized individual death records of the Swiss mortality statistics available since 1969 will enable us to check the recent results.