Temporal-spatial-social parameters in the spread of contagious disease.

Abstract

A conceptual theoretical model was built on the basis of prominent concepts of the generally accepted knowledge on the spread of contagious disease. Subsequently, the model was applied to a real epidemic of variola minor (the mild form of smallpox) and four phases of the epidemic were disclosed. The phases discriminated themselves through their relationships to invasion of certain city subdivisions and rural districts and particularly, through the type of social units involved and the type of persons introducing the disease into these units. Introduction of variola minor into day schools with further spread in classes passed across a threshold which led to a boosting of the number of households affected and of the area involved in the epidemic. The phase of maximal spread corresponded to this operation of day schools as diffusion agencies. The temporal-spatial-social correspondence suggests that phases of the epidemic did occur as a result of periodic variation of the mechanism of spread.