Measles transmission-related epidemiological parameter estimates: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

IF 2.5 4区医学 Q3 INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Epidemiology and Infection Pub Date : 2026-10-27 DOI:10.1017/S0950268826101848

Kusala Pussegoda, Mavra Qamar, Melanie Sterian, Austyn Baumeister, Tricia Corrin, Abhinand Thaivalappil, Lisa A Waddell

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

With the recent resurgence of global measles outbreaks, it is crucial to understand measles transmission dynamics to guide timely and effective public health responses and parameterize infectious disease models for accurate outbreak projections. This systematic review aims to provide a comprehensive resource of measles transmission-related epidemiological parameters. A search was conducted from inception to 14 May 2024. English and French primary studies of transmission-related epidemiological parameters were included, and standard systematic review methodology was followed. Evidence was synthesized using random-effects meta-analyses and descriptive plots. Subgroup analyses by World Health Organization (WHO) region, population, decade, and quality of reporting were conducted to explore heterogeneity. Between 1910 and 2024, 1 209 estimates across 32 transmission-related epidemiological parameters from 612 studies were reported. Measles was characterized by a pooled incubation period (13.5 days, 95%CI 12.6-14.4; I² = 95.9%), serial interval (12.4 days, 95%CI 11.5-13.4; I² = 97.6%), symptom onset to hospitalization (4.8 days, 95%CI 3.7-5.8, I² = 99.7%), and basic reproduction number median 11.5 (range of 0-57). This work is part of a global epidemic preparedness and response project to establish an accessible living Global Repository of Epidemiological Parameters aimed at reducing duplicative efforts in identifying and summarizing epidemiological parameters.

查看原文本刊更多论文

麻疹传播相关流行病学参数估计：系统回顾和荟萃分析。

随着近期全球麻疹疫情的死灰复燃，了解麻疹传播动态对指导及时有效的公共卫生反应和参数化传染病模型以准确预测疫情至关重要。本系统综述旨在提供麻疹传播相关流行病学参数的综合资源。从开始到2024年5月14日进行了一次搜索。纳入了与传播相关的英语和法语流行病学参数的初步研究，并采用了标准的系统评价方法。采用随机效应荟萃分析和描述性图综合证据。按世界卫生组织（WHO）地区、人口、十年和报告质量进行亚组分析，以探索异质性。1910年至2024年期间，报告了612项研究中32个传播相关流行病学参数的1209个估计值。麻疹的特征是合并潜伏期（13.5天，95%CI 12.6-14.4; I2 = 95.9%）、序列间隔（12.4天，95%CI 11.5-13.4; I2 = 97.6%）、症状发作至住院（4.8天，95%CI 3.7-5.8, I2 = 99.7%）和基本繁殖数中位数11.5（范围0-57）。这项工作是全球流行病防范和应对项目的一部分，该项目旨在建立一个无障碍的全球流行病学参数活库，以减少在确定和总结流行病学参数方面的重复工作。

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来源期刊

Epidemiology and Infection 医学-传染病学

CiteScore

4.10

自引率

2.40%

发文量

366

审稿时长

3-6 weeks

期刊介绍： Epidemiology & Infection publishes original reports and reviews on all aspects of infection in humans and animals. Particular emphasis is given to the epidemiology, prevention and control of infectious diseases. The scope covers the zoonoses, outbreaks, food hygiene, vaccine studies, statistics and the clinical, social and public-health aspects of infectious disease, as well as some tropical infections. It has become the key international periodical in which to find the latest reports on recently discovered infections and new technology. For those concerned with policy and planning for the control of infections, the papers on mathematical modelling of epidemics caused by historical, current and emergent infections are of particular value.