Winter monsoon variability accompanies Xisha SST–North China hydroclimate teleconnection reversal during the Medieval climate anomaly

IF 9.6 1区地球科学 Q1 METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Pub Date : 2026-10-16 DOI:10.1038/s41612-026-01565-8

Leilei Jiang,Guijin Fang,Ziyun Huang,Yanmin Qin,Bailing Zhao,Xianyu Huang,Panpan Wu,Yuhao Tao,Ruogu Wang,Kefu Yu

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Abstract

Abstract Winter sea surface temperature (SST) in the South China Sea is a precursor of North China hydroclimate, but the relationship’s long-term stability remains uncertain. Using monthly resolved Xisha coral Sr/Ca-SST and three hydroclimate reconstructions analyzed at native temporal resolution, we find that the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA, 1149–1205 CE) is the only sampled interval with a cross-proxy-consistent positive relationship. The annually resolved Zheng record remains positive after detrending and autocorrelation correction ( r = 0.476, p adj = 0.043), whereas non-MCA relationships are predominantly negative or near zero. East Asian winter monsoon (EAWM)-related variability is largest during the MCA among the six intervals, yet its association with teleconnection strength is weak ( r = 0.52, p = 0.29), arguing against a universal threshold. Independent central-Pacific coral evidence indicates altered tropical-Pacific variability. Because winter-to-summer SST memory persists, we interpret the MCA reversal as downstream atmospheric reorganization, with EAWM variability as a possible preconditioning factor.

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冬季风变率伴随西沙海温-华北水文气候遥相关反转

南海冬季海温（SST）是华北水文气候的前兆，但二者之间的长期稳定性尚不确定。利用月分辨西沙珊瑚Sr/Ca-SST和3次原生时间分辨率的水文气候重建分析，我们发现中世纪气候异常（MCA, 1149-1205 CE）是唯一具有交叉代理一致正相关的采样区间。经去趋势和自相关校正后，年分辨郑氏记录仍为正（r = 0.476, p = 0.043），而非mca关系主要为负或接近于零。东亚冬季风（EAWM）的相关变率在六个时间间隔中在MCA期间最大，但其与遥相关强度的相关性较弱（r = 0.52, p = 0.29），不支持普遍阈值。独立的中太平洋珊瑚证据表明热带-太平洋变率发生了变化。由于冬-夏海温记忆持续存在，我们将MCA反转解释为下游大气重组，EAWM变率可能是一个预处理因素。

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来源期刊

npj Climate and Atmospheric Science Earth and Planetary Sciences-Atmospheric Science

CiteScore

8.80

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

21 weeks

期刊介绍： npj Climate and Atmospheric Science is an open-access journal encompassing the relevant physical, chemical, and biological aspects of atmospheric and climate science. The journal places particular emphasis on regional studies that unveil new insights into specific localities, including examinations of local atmospheric composition, such as aerosols. The range of topics covered by the journal includes climate dynamics, climate variability, weather and climate prediction, climate change, ocean dynamics, weather extremes, air pollution, atmospheric chemistry (including aerosols), the hydrological cycle, and atmosphere–ocean and atmosphere–land interactions. The journal welcomes studies employing a diverse array of methods, including numerical and statistical modeling, the development and application of in situ observational techniques, remote sensing, and the development or evaluation of new reanalyses.