Citizens’ assemblies propose ambitious climate policy but impacts remain limited

IF 26.9 1区地球科学 Q1 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Nature Climate Change Pub Date : 2026-10-14 DOI:10.1038/s41558-026-02755-1

Janosch Pfeffer,Hannah Einhauser,Johanna Hauke,Kira Hoffmann,Lisa Ruf,Milena Weber,Florian Weckbecker,Marlene Wellhausen,Jens Newig

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Abstract Climate citizens’ assemblies convene randomly selected citizens who, after structured learning and deliberation, develop policy recommendations. Yet, whether they produce more ambitious recommendations and influence political decisions remains contested. Here we conduct a comparative, counterfactual assessment of 488 recommendations from five national and one state-level assembly in Western Europe, drawing on document analysis and expert interviews. The results show that citizens consistently proposed more ambitious climate measures than existing government policy. Recommendations sometimes influenced policy by adding momentum, enriching plans, breaking deadlocks or introducing novel ideas, but such influence was rare. Only the French assembly shows substantial policy impact, with one-third of its recommendations having influenced policy, due to strong power delegation, political leadership and resulting public pressure. In the other cases, policy impact was minimal or absent. These findings show that citizens’ assemblies can raise policy ambition, but translating recommendations into political decisions depends strongly on political conditions.

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公民大会提出了雄心勃勃的气候政策，但影响仍然有限

气候公民大会召集随机选择的公民，经过有组织的学习和审议，制定政策建议。然而，他们是否会提出更有雄心的建议并影响政治决策仍存在争议。在这里，我们通过文献分析和专家访谈，对西欧五个国家和一个州级议会提出的488项建议进行了比较和反事实评估。调查结果显示，与现有的政府政策相比，民众一直在提出更雄心勃勃的气候措施。建议有时会通过增加动力、丰富计划、打破僵局或引入新颖想法来影响政策，但这种影响很少见。只有法国议会显示出实质性的政策影响，由于强大的权力授权、政治领导和由此产生的公众压力，其三分之一的建议对政策产生了影响。在其他情况下，政策影响很小或没有影响。这些发现表明，公民大会可以提高政策抱负，但将建议转化为政治决策在很大程度上取决于政治条件。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Nature Climate Change ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES-METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES

CiteScore

40.30

自引率

1.60%

发文量

267

审稿时长

4-8 weeks

期刊介绍： Nature Climate Change is dedicated to addressing the scientific challenge of understanding Earth's changing climate and its societal implications. As a monthly journal, it publishes significant and cutting-edge research on the nature, causes, and impacts of global climate change, as well as its implications for the economy, policy, and the world at large. The journal publishes original research spanning the natural and social sciences, synthesizing interdisciplinary research to provide a comprehensive understanding of climate change. It upholds the high standards set by all Nature-branded journals, ensuring top-tier original research through a fair and rigorous review process, broad readership access, high standards of copy editing and production, rapid publication, and independence from academic societies and other vested interests. Nature Climate Change serves as a platform for discussion among experts, publishing opinion, analysis, and review articles. It also features Research Highlights to highlight important developments in the field and original reporting from renowned science journalists in the form of feature articles. Topics covered in the journal include adaptation, atmospheric science, ecology, economics, energy, impacts and vulnerability, mitigation, oceanography, policy, sociology, and sustainability, among others.