Changes in Flood Frequency and Seasonality Across Midwestern U.S. Watersheds Under a Warming Climate: Insights From Convection‐Permitting Climate Simulations and Physics‐Based Hydrologic Models

IF 5 1区地球科学 Q1 GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Geophysical Research Letters Pub Date : 2026-10-14 DOI:10.1029/2026gl124622

Mohammad Abbasian,Daniel B. Wright,Michael Notaro,Steve Vavrus,Daniel J. Vimont

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Abstract

Abstract We combine CONUS404 convection‐permitting climate simulations with the physics‐based WRF‐Hydro model to assess how climate warming may influence flood frequency and seasonality across the Midwestern United States. This framework captures interactions among precipitation, soil moisture, and snowpack that shape flood generation. Both simulated warming and historical records show a regional shift toward more extreme warm‐season, rainfall‐driven floods. This regional signal, however, does not translate uniformly to individual watersheds, where flood responses reflect not only warming but also the influence of subregional climate variability and sampling uncertainty. Local flood‐frequency changes thus remain highly uncertain despite the thermodynamic tendency toward stronger convective precipitation. Ensembles of convection‐permitting simulations are needed to constrain plausible local outcomes. These findings suggest that flood risk communication under climate warming should distinguish broad climate‐driven tendencies from uncertain local responses.

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气候变暖下美国中西部流域洪水频率和季节性的变化：对流允许的气候模拟和基于物理的水文模型的见解

我们将CONUS404允许对流的气候模拟与基于物理的WRF - Hydro模型相结合，以评估气候变暖如何影响美国中西部的洪水频率和季节性。这个框架捕捉了降水、土壤湿度和积雪之间的相互作用，形成了洪水的产生。模拟变暖和历史记录都表明，区域正朝着更极端的暖季、降雨驱动的洪水转变。然而，这一区域信号并不能统一地转化为个别流域，在个别流域，洪水响应不仅反映变暖，还反映分区域气候变率和采样不确定性的影响。因此，尽管热力倾向于强对流降水，但局部洪水频率的变化仍然高度不确定。需要对流模拟的集合来约束可信的局部结果。这些发现表明，气候变暖下的洪水风险沟通应该区分广泛的气候驱动趋势和不确定的局部响应。

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来源期刊

Geophysical Research Letters 地学-地球科学综合

CiteScore

9.00

自引率

9.60%

发文量

1588

审稿时长

2.2 months

期刊介绍： Geophysical Research Letters (GRL) publishes high-impact, innovative, and timely research on major scientific advances in all the major geoscience disciplines. Papers are communications-length articles and should have broad and immediate implications in their discipline or across the geosciences. GRLmaintains the fastest turn-around of all high-impact publications in the geosciences and works closely with authors to ensure broad visibility of top papers.