Global Anthropogenic Methane Emissions: Bottom-Up Simulations of Current Trends and Scope for Future Mitigation

Abstract

A technology-resolved bottom-up model is used to quantify the current state of global anthropogenic methane emissions and the scope for limiting them in a 2030 to 2050 timeframe. Findings show that with current legislation and “middle-of-the-road” developments in global energy and agricultural systems, anthropogenic methane emissions continue on an upward trend in the next decades. With full implementation of current national plans for methane mitigation, emissions will decline between 2020 and 2030, but not enough to meet the Global Methane Pledge target of a joint global reduction by 30%. The pledge target can be met through full implementation of existing technology, with 70% of mitigation potential in the energy sector. Maintaining low methane emissions beyond 2030 also requires investments into improved waste and wastewater systems and measures to control emissions from livestock and rice cultivation, combined with demand-side measures to phase-down fossil fuels and shifts to more sustainable consumption patterns.