Football and symbols: a Bayesian analysis of symbolic consumption in sports club brands.

Abstract

Introduction: Contemporary football operates as a cultural system in which club brands function as symbolic resources through which fans construct identity, lifestyle, and social belonging. However, existing research has largely relied on linear analytical approaches, limiting the understanding of how real social identity, ideal social identity, and lifestyle interact as an integrated symbolic system.

Aims: This study aims to analyze how football club brands generate a sense of belonging through symbolic consumption, considering the interrelationships among real social identity, ideal social identity, and lifestyle.

Methods: A quantitative, cross-sectional, non-experimental design was employed using a non-probabilistic sample of 786 Colombian football fans. Data were collected through validated symbolic consumption scales measuring real social identity, ideal social identity, and lifestyle as perceptions of brand-self congruence; the sense of belonging was not directly measured but theoretically inferred. A Bayesian network analysis was conducted using a Gaussian graphical model to estimate conditional dependencies among items and identify the most central nodes of the symbolic consumption network.

Results: The results reveal a cohesive yet differentiated symbolic network composed of nine nodes and 21 significant conditional relationships. Items measuring ideal social identity showed the greatest relational prominence in the network, exhibiting the highest levels of closeness, betweenness, and expected influence. Real social identity items occupied a more peripheral position, while lifestyle items showed a moderate integrative role, linking identity perceptions to self-reported lifestyle congruence. These findings suggest that the perceived symbolic connection with football brands is, in this sample, more strongly associated with aspirational self-projection than with congruence with the current self-image.

Conclusions: Within the scope of the nine items analyzed, the sample studied, and the cross-sectional design, symbolic consumption in football appears to be predominantly aspirational. The results suggest that football club brands may operate as narrative and cultural devices through which fans project desired identities. Methodologically, the study illustrates the value of Bayesian network analysis for exploring the relational structure of symbolic consumption in sport.