Development of A Mathematical Model to Control Crisis Management of Oil Spill Caused by Weathering Processes

Abstract

Oil spills represent a major environmental threat to marine ecosystems, coastal resources, and oil transportation infrastructure, particularly in regions with intensive petroleum activities. Ras Tanura Port, Saudi Arabia, is one of the world's largest oil export terminals and remains vulnerable to accidental oil spill incidents. In this study, a coupled mathematical model based on ordinary differential equations (ODEs) was developed in MATLAB to simulate oil spill evolution under the environmental conditions of the Ras Tanura Port. The model integrates established formulations for oil spreading, evaporation, emulsification, viscosity, volume reduction, and biodegradation into a unified ODE-based framework. The results showed that wind speed significantly influenced oil spill behavior, with increasing wind speed reducing the predicted spreading area and enhancing oil redistribution processes. Oil thickness decreased from 94.62 mm to 7.54 mm during the simulation period. Sensitivity analysis indicated that Ras Tanura crude oil (API = 33.5) exhibited the highest tendency for evaporation and emulsification among the investigated crude oils, resulting in increased viscosity and density due to the progressive removal of lighter hydrocarbon fractions. Furthermore, spill location was identified as a major controlling factor, with offshore release scenarios producing the highest spreading rates and the greatest potential for large-scale contamination. The findings demonstrate that oil properties, environmental conditions, and spill location collectively govern oil spill evolution. The developed model provides a practical tool for environmental risk assessment, emergency response planning, resource allocation, and crisis management in oil-producing coastal regions.