Means-Tested Public Transportation Subsidies: Causal Evidence and Implications

Abstract

This paper evaluates the effects of a novel and large-scale program in King County, Washington, that provides fare-free public transportation to individuals with low incomes. Using both experimental and quasi-experimental methods together with rich administrative and survey data, we find that providing free transit has very limited effects on mobility or downstream outcomes related to health and well-being. We examine possible explanations for the modest effects, which contrast with findings from prior research. Our results suggest that changes in the external environment post-COVID-19 pandemic, including changes in norms around fare evasion, reduced the price elasticity of demand for travel by transit among individuals with low incomes.