Geospatial allocation of biogenic CO2 supply and demand for CCUS in Finland: A scenario analysis

Abstract

This study examines the availability, infrastructure demand and supply costs of biogenic CO2 for carbon capture, utilization and storage (CCUS) in Finland. A heuristic geospatial allocation model that aims to minimize CO2 transport demand is developed to evaluate potential CO2 supply and hub configurations under policy-based CCUS deployment scenarios. The examined large industrial facilities in Finland emit 29 Mt of biogenic CO2 annually. Due to the lack of domestic geological storage capacity and the need for CO2 shipping, the model consistently forms CCS hubs near seaports adjacent to large emission sources. Within the scenarios and system boundary examined, centralized CCU hubs can reduce investments, but the cost benefit is largely offset by increased transport demand. Seasonally variable sources have higher specific investment costs when dimensioned for peak load but excluding such sources from a hub-based CCUS system appears to yield little or no economic advantage because the hub areas expand and transport demand increases. Across the scenarios examined, the levelized cost of CO2 supply, including capture, compression and transport to CCS hub ports or utilization sites, ranges from 79 to 95 €/tCO2. With a CO2 capture volume of 14.8 Mtpa, investments in CO2 supply infrastructure range from EUR 3.5 to 5.0 billion. For CO2 utilization capacities ranging from 3.7 to 11.1 Mtpa, investments in CO2 utilization and hydrogen production infrastructure range from EUR 3.6 to 9.5 billion. The findings provide insights into CCUS infrastructure planning in regions with abundant CO2 sources but limited domestic geological storage capacity.