Probability-based quantification of high-risk regions for noise-induced tipping in panel structures

Abstract

Panel structures operating in aerospace and transportation systems are frequently exposed to multiple interacting excitations, which may induce tipping from low-amplitude oscillations to catastrophic high-amplitude oscillations, thereby threatening structural safety and service life. To address this issue, this study investigates the tipping of panel structures under combined Gaussian colored noise and harmonic excitations. First, the deterministic panel model is shown to exhibit bistability, where low-amplitude and high-amplitude oscillation states coexist within specific ranges of excitation frequency and amplitude. Subsequently, the effects of noise intensity and correlation time on the tipping are analyzed. The results reveal that increasing the noise intensity or decreasing the correlation time significantly facilitates the occurrence of tipping and advances the onset of catastrophic high-amplitude oscillations. To quantify the risk associated with such transitions, a probability-based framework is proposed, and the concept of a high-risk region is introduced. This framework enables the identification of parameter regions in which noise-induced tipping is highly likely to occur. Furthermore, the dependence of the high-risk regions on both system parameters and noise characteristics is analyzed in detail. These findings may provide valuable insights for preventing noise-induced tipping in panel structures and improving their structural safety and reliability.