Dynamic Bioeconomic Modeling of Economic-Ecological Benefits in Five Shrimp Farming Models

Abstract

Optimizing economic and ecological performance is critical for sustainable shrimp farming. This study investigates the dynamic characteristics of economic benefits, optimal harvesting times, and the impacts of price and size on comprehensive benefits across five shrimp farming techniques: the indoor super-intensive culture (ISIC), indoor super intensive recirculating culture (ISIRC), indoor super-intensive biofloc culture (ISBIC), pond monoculture (PMC), and the pond integrated multi-trophic aquaculture model (PIMTA) utilizing a bioeconomic model, Monte Carlo simulation, and meta-analysis. The results indicate that PIMTA and PMC begin generating profits after 44 and 36 days of farming, respectively, demonstrating a distinct advantage in break-even points. ISBIC and ISIC both become profitable after 49 days, with peak net profits per unit yield occurring at 102 and 119 days, respectively. In terms of net profit per unit area, ISIC performs best within a 125-day cycle, reaching a maximum of 35.49 USD m⁻², followed by ISBIC, which peaks at 34.83 USD m⁻² on day 122, while PIMTA and PMC exhibit relatively lower economic returns per unit area. The Monte Carlo simulation reveals overlapping net profit distributions between ISIC and ISBIC, whereas the net profit distribution of ISIRC remains largely independent, with a peak of only 49,145 USD ha⁻¹, and both PMC and PIMTA show lower net profits with narrower distributions. Over the short term (before day 125), ISIC achieves the highest economic returns; however, ISBIC becomes more economically advantageous in the later stages (after day 125). In terms of ecological performance, PIMTA ranks first, followed by ISIRC. The meta-analysis of the collected data indicates that the comprehensive benefits of shrimp farming peak at a size of 70 tails per kilogram. This study provides a scientific basis for farmers to select suitable farming models and formulate dynamic market strategies, thereby contributing to the sustainable development of aquaculture.