Changes in road traffic fatalities in France over a decade: Disentangling exposure and fatality risk

Abstract

Introduction

In a context of demographic ageing and changing mobility practices, understanding how fatality risks evolve once exposure to traffic is considered is essential for designing effective prevention policies.

Method

This study analyses changes in road fatality risks in France between 2007-2008 and 2018–2019 using police-reported fatal crash data combined with individual travel data from the national mobility surveys. Exposure-based fatality rates are estimated per million person-hours travelled. Analyses are conducted by gender, age group, and type of road user. A decomposition approach is used to disentangle changes in the number of fatalities attributable to variations in exposure from those attributable to changes in fatality rates.

Results

Over the study period, annual road fatalities decreased by 15%, while total travel time increased by 22%, resulting in a 30% reduction in the overall exposure-based fatality risk. However, trends differed markedly across casualty categories. Young adults (17–29) and the elderly (70+) showed the highest fatality risks per hour travelled. Motorised two-wheeler riders remained the most at-risk despite declining fatality rates. Cyclists experienced a doubling of fatality risk, driven primarily by an increase in fatality rates rather than by greater exposure. Decomposition results show that improvements in fatality rates offset rising exposure for most groups, except for cyclists.

Conclusions

These findings underscore the need for targeted road safety policies that address both exposure and risk. Improving infrastructure and protective measures for cyclists, alongside adaptations for an ageing population and high-risk motorised users, appears critical to sustain the decline in road deaths.