Stochastic simulation of breakeven cost distributions for mortality-reducing interventions in feedlot cattle.

Abstract

Mortality is one of the most impactful and costly outcomes in feedlot cattle production, yet quantification of the economic value of interventions to reduce it across differing cattle populations and market conditions has been limited. The primary research objective was to characterize distributions of per-animal breakeven costs for a hypothetical mortality-reducing intervention in feedlot cattle using stochastic simulation, evaluated across sexes, arrival weight classes (approximately 249, 340, and 431 kg; 5wt, 7wt, and 9wt), current (baseline) mortality levels (0.5%, 1.5%, 3%, 7%), and intervention effectiveness levels (5%, 10%, 25%, 50% proportional mortality reduction). Breakevens represent maximum per-animal intervention costs that achieve equivalent expected net returns to current management. A secondary objective was to evaluate the relative importance of input variables on breakeven variation. A partial budget framework was used, with animal performance and pricing variables simulated from correlated multivariate distributions, parameterized from commercial feedlot data and industry price reports. Discrete variables (interest rate, mortality timing, and feed intake of mortalities) also were evaluated. Long-run (LR) and short-run (SR) models were constructed using pricing data from 2015 to 2025, and 2025 only, respectively. Breakeven costs scaled heavily with current mortality prevalence and intervention effectiveness; median values ranged from $0.47/animal (7wt steer, 0.5% mortality, 5% reduction, LR) to $65.65/animal (7wt steer, 7% mortality, 50% reduction, LR). Distributions widened as mortality reduction levels increased, reflecting greater economic uncertainty at higher intervention effectiveness. Steers had consistently higher breakeven values than heifers, approximately 6% to 10%, and heavier placement weights yielded higher breakevens. Breakeven costs in the SR model were approximately 40% to 50% higher than LR, reflecting historically strong 2025 cattle markets. Fed cattle price was the dominant driver of breakeven variation within primary factors (median Spearman R² = 0.88, LR), with corn price a distant second (R² = 0.13); remaining variables were of minimal individual importance. These findings provide distributional context for evaluating the economic value of mortality-reducing interventions, enabling stakeholders to assess intervention feasibility across various cattle populations and market conditions.