Intersections of climate and society: cold stress vulnerability in Northern Norway

Abstract

Extreme cold profoundly shapes health, livelihoods, and social well-being in northern communities, yet research on social vulnerability to such conditions remains limited. This study provides a framework for integrating social, demographic, infrastructural, and institutional dimensions into an assessment of vulnerability to extreme cold in northern Norway. It utilizes the Extremely Cold Social Vulnerability Index (ECSVI, ranging from 0 to 1) derived from the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), and indices of social sensitivity and social adaptivity for 83 communities across Nordland, Troms, and Finnmark in Northern Norway during 2000–2019. Finnmark experienced substantially greater cold exposure than Nordland and Troms, although annual exposure to UTCI < − 27 °C declined from 1011 to 883 h between 2000 and 2009 and 2010–2019. ECSVI showed marked regional differences, with Finnmark remaining the most vulnerable county (0.69 and 0.67 in two decades), compared with substantially lower values in Troms and Nordland. At the community level, Social Sensitivity ranged from 0.27 to 0.61 and Social Adaptivity from 0.39 to 0.64. Low-income households (r = 0.64), foreign-born population (r = 0.62), and income inequality (r = 0.60) showed the strongest positive associations with Social Sensitivity. Infrastructure metrics such as connectivity to the municipal water supply (r = 0.61) and roads with street lighting (r = 0.46) were the highest correlators with Social Adaptivity. Overall, the results demonstrate that vulnerability to extreme cold reflects the combined effects of climatic exposure and socioeconomic conditions, while stronger adaptive capacity can reduce vulnerability. By quantifying vulnerability across and within regions, this study offers actionable insights for targeted adaptation and resilience planning.