Gradient Identification and Institutional Responses to the Risk of Sexual Abuse of Left-Behind Minors: An Empirical Analysis Based on 187 Judicial Cases in Eastern Sichuan

IF 2.2 3区心理学 Q1 CRIMINOLOGY & PENOLOGY

Journal of Interpersonal Violence Pub Date : 2026-10-09 DOI:10.1177/08862605261487999

Wu Xiaomin, He Xi

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Based on 187 judicial cases involving sexual abuse of left-behind minors in eastern Sichuan (2021–2025), this study employs binary logistic regression, interrupted time series (ITS) analysis, and event history analysis to examine the effects of absent guardianship, acquaintance networks, and the mandatory reporting system on the risk of abuse. The study found that for every one-level increase in the degree of guardianship absence, the risk of repeated abuse increased by 67.3% (odds ratio [OR] = 1.673, p = .001); the recurrence rate of abuse by acquaintances who are not immediate family members was significantly higher than that by strangers (OR = 2.76, p = .003), while no significant difference was observed for immediate family members; the time lag in reporting abuse within the family was significantly longer than that for abuse outside the family (8.7 months vs. 4.2 months, t = 11.67, p < .001); following policy implementation, the proportion of cases reported by obligated parties rose from 25% to 81.5%, but a low baseline confounded the ITS estimate due to the pandemic (β 2 = 12.6), and the stock of risk did not decrease significantly. This study preliminarily reveals a conditional association between the risk effects of familiar-person networks and the completeness of guardianship, offering directional insights for extending the social ecosystem theory to a “family–community cross-level risk transmission mechanism.”

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留守未成年人性侵风险的梯度识别与制度响应——基于川东地区187个司法案件的实证分析

本研究基于川东地区2021-2025年187起涉及留守未成年人性侵的司法案件，运用二元logistic回归、中断时间序列（ITS）分析和事件历史分析等方法，考察了监护缺失、熟人网络和强制报告制度对留守未成年人性侵风险的影响。研究发现，监护缺失程度每增加一个级别，重复虐待的风险增加67.3%（优势比[OR] = 1.673, p = .001）；非直系亲属的熟人施暴的复发率显著高于陌生人（OR = 2.76, p = 0.003），直系亲属施暴的复发率差异无统计学意义；报告家庭内虐待的滞后时间明显长于报告家庭外虐待的滞后时间（8.7个月比4.2个月，t = 11.67, p < .001）；政策实施后，有义务的缔约方报告的病例比例从25%上升到81.5%，但由于大流行（β 2 = 12.6），较低的基线使ITS估计混淆，风险存量没有显着下降。本研究初步揭示了熟人网络风险效应与监护完备性之间存在条件关联，为将社会生态系统理论扩展到“家庭-社区跨层面风险传导机制”提供了方向性见解。

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来源期刊

Journal of Interpersonal Violence Multiple-

CiteScore

6.20

自引率

12.00%

发文量

375

期刊介绍： The Journal of Interpersonal Violence is devoted to the study and treatment of victims and perpetrators of interpersonal violence. It provides a forum of discussion of the concerns and activities of professionals and researchers working in domestic violence, child sexual abuse, rape and sexual assault, physical child abuse, and violent crime. With its dual focus on victims and victimizers, the journal will publish material that addresses the causes, effects, treatment, and prevention of all types of violence. JIV only publishes reports on individual studies in which the scientific method is applied to the study of some aspect of interpersonal violence. Research may use qualitative or quantitative methods. JIV does not publish reviews of research, individual case studies, or the conceptual analysis of some aspect of interpersonal violence. Outcome data for program or intervention evaluations must include a comparison or control group.