Populism and the Politics of Aid Classification: Evidence from the OECD Development Assistance Committee

Abstract

Abstracts Populist leaders increasingly criticize global governance systems, portraying them as elitist and threatening national sovereignty. While research has explored how populism affects international organizations, less is known about how a rise in populism in donor countries affects engagement with standards in international development cooperation. This research note argues that populism affects how donors classify and present foreign aid projects. Focusing on the OECD’s Development Assistance Committee (DAC), we theorize a mechanism of classification avoidance, whereby bureaucrats anticipate political scrutiny from populists and reduce the use of policy markers that signal alignment with global priorities. Using project-level data on aid activities from 1998 to 2022, we show that increases in anti-elitism in donor legislatures are associated with declines in the share of aid classified as targeting DAC priority areas, alongside stable project screening practices and some but more limited sectoral reallocation. While we do not directly observe bureaucratic decision-making, the empirical patterns are broadly more consistent with anticipatory bureaucratic adaptation than with alternative accounts of policy change. Our paper highlights how domestic political dynamics shape engagement with international standards through bureaucratic practices.