The Real Channel for Nominal Bond‐Stock Puzzles

Abstract

We document that the nature of aggregate consumption dynamics changes when the bond‐stock correlation switches sign. We identify three regimes in a real‐time, sequential learning framework: two highly persistent regimes where permanent or transitory consumption shocks are more dominant, and a largely transitory disaster regime. We study the implications for asset prices. The transition from the second to the first regime in the late 1990s makes the correlation between equities and real bonds switch from positive to negative as in the data, providing an explanation from the perspective of real consumption dynamics. The findings extend to the international setting.