Design considerations for incorporating serological monitoring into trachoma prevalence surveys.

Abstract

Serology is increasingly used to monitor infection transmission and disease elimination. Embedding dried blood spot collection in trachoma surveys allows transmission intensity inference through population-level seroconversion rate (SCR) estimation, but no formal assessment of required sample size has been published. Using serology data from 40 trachoma prevalence surveys, we estimated seroprevalence intra-cluster correlation coefficient, a key design parameter, and assessed survey design considerations for incorporating serological monitoring. Design scenarios focused on proposed operational SCR thresholds (2.2 [no action needed] and 4.5 [action needed] per 100 child years) for interpretation of serological data in low-transmission and post-elimination settings. We evaluated SCR estimation in 42 two-stage designs by calculating precision (confidence interval width around an SCR value) and power (the measure of deviation of suggested thresholds to the SCR value). When the SCR is ≤1.5 and >5.7 per 100 person-years, sample sizes between 300-2000 allowed good precision of SCR estimation. We anticipate a standard prevalence survey with 30 clusters and 30 households per cluster should provide ≥80% power to determine that an SCR ≤1.2 falls below a 2.2 threshold and SCR ≥5.7 falls above a 4.5 threshold. Our results support collection of serological data via the recommended survey design for trachoma surveillance.