{"title":"Conditional Randomization Tests for the Specification of Interference Structure","authors":"Tadao Hoshino, Takahide Yanagi","doi":"10.1002/jae.70076","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<p>This study proposes specification tests for interference structure in causal inference with spillovers. We focus on experimental settings in which the treatment assignment mechanism is known. To test whether a given exposure mapping adequately summarizes the true interference structure, we develop conditional randomization tests by utilizing the hierarchical relationship between the null and alternative exposure mappings. When there are multiple candidate exposure mappings of interest, we propose a sequential specification testing procedure that controls the false discovery rate. Through extensive simulation exercises, we demonstrate that our tests have desirable size properties and satisfactory power. To illustrate the proposed methods, we revisit two existing social network experiments: One on farmers' insurance adoption and another on anti-conflict education programs.</p>","PeriodicalId":48363,"journal":{"name":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","volume":"41 6","pages":"791-805"},"PeriodicalIF":2.5000,"publicationDate":"2026-10-02","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/epdf/10.1002/jae.70076","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Journal of Applied Econometrics","FirstCategoryId":"96","ListUrlMain":"https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1002/jae.70076","RegionNum":3,"RegionCategory":"经济学","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"2026/6/23 0:00:00","PubModel":"Epub","JCR":"Q2","JCRName":"ECONOMICS","Score":null,"Total":0}
引用次数: 0
Abstract
This study proposes specification tests for interference structure in causal inference with spillovers. We focus on experimental settings in which the treatment assignment mechanism is known. To test whether a given exposure mapping adequately summarizes the true interference structure, we develop conditional randomization tests by utilizing the hierarchical relationship between the null and alternative exposure mappings. When there are multiple candidate exposure mappings of interest, we propose a sequential specification testing procedure that controls the false discovery rate. Through extensive simulation exercises, we demonstrate that our tests have desirable size properties and satisfactory power. To illustrate the proposed methods, we revisit two existing social network experiments: One on farmers' insurance adoption and another on anti-conflict education programs.
期刊介绍：
The Journal of Applied Econometrics is an international journal published bi-monthly, plus 1 additional issue (total 7 issues). It aims to publish articles of high quality dealing with the application of existing as well as new econometric techniques to a wide variety of problems in economics and related subjects, covering topics in measurement, estimation, testing, forecasting, and policy analysis. The emphasis is on the careful and rigorous application of econometric techniques and the appropriate interpretation of the results. The economic content of the articles is stressed. A special feature of the Journal is its emphasis on the replicability of results by other researchers. To achieve this aim, authors are expected to make available a complete set of the data used as well as any specialised computer programs employed through a readily accessible medium, preferably in a machine-readable form. The use of microcomputers in applied research and transferability of data is emphasised. The Journal also features occasional sections of short papers re-evaluating previously published papers. The intention of the Journal of Applied Econometrics is to provide an outlet for innovative, quantitative research in economics which cuts across areas of specialisation, involves transferable techniques, and is easily replicable by other researchers. Contributions that introduce statistical methods that are applicable to a variety of economic problems are actively encouraged. The Journal also aims to publish review and survey articles that make recent developments in the field of theoretical and applied econometrics more readily accessible to applied economists in general.
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