A Novel Approach for Reconstructing Hydrocarbon Generation Potential of Source Rocks: Through Thermal Simulation Experiments and Its Geological Implications

Abstract

Accurate reconstruction of the original hydrocarbon generation potential of source rocks is of paramount importance for petroleum exploration, reservoir development, and resource assessment. Due to the complex nature of hydrocarbon generation–expulsion processes and numerous influencing factors, conventional restoration methods frequently produce results with significant uncertainties. This study adopted pyrolysis data from systematic thermal simulation experiments to establish a comprehensive reconstruction methodology through rigorous piecewise interpolation analysis of diverse mudstone and shale samples. Controlled experimental simulations were performed on organic-rich samples from the North China, Sichuan, and Ordos Basins to obtain precise Rock-Eval parameters. A robust thermal evolution model was developed, utilizing hydrocarbon generation potential index (GPI) as the independent variable and vitrinite reflectance (R₀) as the dependent variable, which facilitated the classification of original hydrocarbon potential into six well-defined categories. Subsequently, mathematical models and correction formulas were derived for different kerogen types through quantitative analysis. Field validation demonstrates exceptional applicability in source rock evaluations for both the Sichuan and Qiangtang Basins, with assessment results exhibiting strong correlation with actual exploration data. The proposed methodology not only establishes standardized protocols for sample collection but also overcomes the limitations of traditional static parameter approaches, providing valuable applications for accurate evaluation of medium-to-low maturity source rocks and demonstrating significant potential for hydrocarbon resource assessment.