The Indo-Pacific: a turbulent and evolving region

Abstract

The Indo-Pacific has emerged as the world’s most significant geostrategic construct, defined by its immense potential, demographic weight, and the pivotal role of major powers. This policy brief explores how the region has been reshaped by the “strategic conundrum” of China’s phenomenal economic and military rise, which has challenged the long-standing primacy of the United States (US). Driven by competing grand strategies—such as China’s Belt and Road Initiatives (BRI) and the US “Rebalancing” strategy—the region is experiencing heightened strategic turbulence. This has fostered a shift from traditional multilateral groupings to minilateral arrangements such as the Quad and AUKUS. By analysing the nuanced perspectives of key stakeholders such as India, Japan and ASEAN, this brief examines how countries navigate the dilemma of balancing China’s trade dependence with their own strategic concerns regarding sovereignty, territorial integrity and a rule-based international order. Ultimately, the Indo-Pacific serves as a primary theatre of contemporary rivalry, where evolving strategic dynamics and emergent “hotspots” necessitate a delicate balancing act between intense economic competition and proactive diplomacy.