Regional comprehensive economic partnership: opportunities or threats for India?

Abstract

This paper examines the role of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP) in advancing regional economic integration between ASEAN and its key dialogue partners, India and China. It explores India’s historical, trade, and investment relations with these actors and highlights the complex dynamics that led to India’s withdrawal from the RCEP. Although this decision is often regarded as a prudent measure to protect domestic industries from competitive pressures, it has also underscored India’s marginalisation within the Asia-Pacific economic landscape and its limited capacity to balance regional influence whilst managing relations with China. Recent geopolitical developments, including adjustments in the multilateral trade environment and the restructuring of global supply chains, have further intensified the complexity of India’s strategic decision-making. In response, the paper develops a three-tier evaluative framework that considers India’s global positioning, regional cooperation networks, and economic resilience in assessing the feasibility of its participation in RCEP. Drawing on a qualitative analysis of trade patterns, investment trends, and relevant institutional developments, the study compares RCEP’s multilateral framework with India’s existing bilateral trade arrangements and examines how these institutional differences shape India’s strategic choices. Finally, the paper provides policy recommendations on whether India should revisit its position and outlines a strategic pathway for India’s engagement in RCEP and the broader role it can play in shaping the future of regional and global trade governance.