Resilience simulation and optimization of China's crude oil supply chain under geopolitical disruptions

Abstract

Recurring geopolitical disruptions have intensified uncertainty in international energy supply chains, making supply chain resilience a critical dimension of energy security. Although China is a major crude oil importer, the resilience of its crude oil supply chain (COSC) has received limited attention. This study employs a coupled system dynamics and input-output model to simulate COSC resilience under geopolitical disruptions and identifies priority emergency response strategies for the gasoline, diesel, and kerosene supply chains by evaluating the recovery capacity and cost-effectiveness of alternative emergency measure combinations. Results show that releasing 10% of the strategic petroleum reserve and 10% of refined oil inventories provides a baseline response but cannot fully offset severe import disruptions. Under the Middle East conflict scenario, which causes a 47% crude oil import shortfall lasting 180 days, upstream measures are generally more cost-effective than downstream ones. Full recovery requires upstream measures plus gasoline export reduction and consumption compression for gasoline, upstream measures plus diesel consumption compression and emergency diesel import for diesel, and either kerosene export reduction alone or upstream measures plus emergency kerosene import for kerosene, with the latter showing better cost-effectiveness. Under the Strait of Malacca blockade scenario, which causes a 73.5% crude oil import shortfall, gasoline and diesel require inventory-release caps of 39% and 27%, respectively, whereas kerosene can be restored through a targeted second-stage combination. These findings suggest that strengthening COSC resilience requires prioritizing upstream supply-support measures, enhancing reserve governance flexibility, adopting differentiated strategies for refined oil products, diversifying import sources and maritime routes, and developing a real-time risk early-warning and emergency decision-support platform.