In the Age of AI—Are National Models and Data Sets Still Important for Stream Flow Prediction?

Abstract

Abstract Accurate streamflow prediction is critical for effective water resource management, and recent advances in deep learning and multi‐basin data sets have significantly improved model skill. Global deep‐learning models, trained on thousands of catchments have demonstrated strong generalization across diverse climates and continents. However, these models rely solely on globally available meteorological inputs, potentially overlooking the value of nationally developed data sets with enhanced regional accuracy. In this study, we assess the benefit of using Canada's high‐resolution national reanalysis data set (CaSR) in long short‐term memory (LSTM) models for streamflow prediction. We compare model performance using different meteorological forcings, global (ERA5‐Land), continental (Daymet), national (CaSR), and a combined “Complete” model, across over 1,000 Canadian stream gauges. Model performance is evaluated using the Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), Kling‐Gupta Efficiency (KGE) and related metrics. We also benchmark our best‐performing model against Google's global LSTM streamflow model at 412 Canadian gauges. Results show that national‐scale deep‐learning models using CaSR outperforms deep‐learning models using only global or continental inputs. The Complete model achieved the highest performance, with a median KGE 0.886−exceeding the 0.839 achieved by Google's global model within Canada. These findings suggest that nationally trained models using a wide array of inputs, including national meteorological data sets, can outperform state‐of‐the‐art global deep‐learning models that do not use such data when applied within their region of origin. For countries with dense observational networks and distinct hydrological regimes, investing in national data sets and models can enhance deep‐learning model prediction accuracy, leading to improved resilience to climate extremes and local water management decisions.