From gigawatts to critical mineral demands for EU solar and wind

Abstract

Decarbonizing the European Union’s energy system requires shifting from fossil fuels to material-intensive renewable infrastructure, yet the continental mineral demands of legally binding targets remain poorly quantified. Here we show that expanding solar, onshore and offshore wind capacity across the 27 member states through 2050 generates unprecedented demand for copper, zinc, silicon and rare earth elements, with supply-chain exposure highly dependent on the chosen technology pathway. Through three scenario-based projections, we find that pathways prioritizing offshore wind maintain rare earth element exposure near full-target levels (69.2 kilotonnes) even when solar and onshore deployment falls short, as these elements are technologically embedded in direct-driven turbine generators. These findings reframe the clean energy transition as a continental materials procurement challenge where mineral security functions as a binding feasibility constraint. Delivering climate goals requires institutionalizing material stress tests in national deployment plans, establishing strategic component reserves and actively securing international midstream processing partnerships.