Voyage-based optimisation of biofuel bunkering strategies using real ship data

Abstract

Maritime decarbonisation requires operationally realistic strategies that account for fuel availability and evolving regulatory constraints. This study presents a data-driven framework for optimising biofuel bunkering strategies for a real-world bulk carrier by integrating historical voyage data, port-specific biofuel availability, lifecycle emissions, and regulatory performance metrics. Historical voyage data are used to reconstruct routes and estimate energy demand. Candidate biofuels derived from different feedstocks, including FAME, HVO, and biodiesel blends (B24 and B30), are evaluated using a multi-objective optimisation model (NSGA-III) considering: (i) the overall WTW GHG emission intensity, (ii) lost cargo volume, and (iii) annual FuelEU compliance margin. Results show that fuel type primarily governs WTW emissions, while feedstock availability influences high-biofuel-share pathways, and port-level biofuel availability dominates optimal bunkering strategies. Waste-based biofuels achieve the lowest WTW emission intensities (≤16 gCO₂eq/MJ), outperforming animal fat-derived (20-22 gCO₂eq/MJ), crop-based biofuels (44-51 gCO₂eq/MJ), and biodiesel blends (>70 gCO₂eq/MJ). Cargo volume loss remains minimal (<1%) across all scenarios. Regulatory analysis indicates that crop-based biofuels become non-compliant with FuelEU GHG intensity targets by 2045. The proposed framework enables actionable, voyage-specific decarbonisation strategies and highlights the critical role of fuel type, feedstock selection, port-level fuel availability and biofuel supply development.