Balancing Productivity, Ecology, and Social Well‐Being: Insights From Three Decades of Farmland Transformation in China

Abstract

Balancing food security, social equity, and ecological sustainability remains a persistent challenge in global agricultural systems. While economic and ecological aspects of land‐use transitions have been extensively studied, the long‐term dynamics of social functions and their interactions with other functions are less understood. This study investigates the decadal spatiotemporal patterns, functional relationships, and spatial association factors of farmland multifunctionality in China's major grain‐producing regions in 1990, 2000, 2010, and 2020. A multidimensional indicator system was developed to capture economic, social, and ecological functions across 185 prefecture‐level cities, and a CRITIC‐entropy hybrid weighting method was applied to construct multifunctionality indices. Correlation analysis with false discovery rate correction was used to examine trade‐offs and synergies, and the GeoDetector model was employed to identify the explanatory power of factor stratification and factor interactions. The results reveal a paradoxical trajectory across the four benchmark years: while economic and ecological functions improved substantially, the social function declined. Functional relationships were reconfigured, with economic‐ecological interactions changing from conflict to synergy, whereas social‐ecological interactions changed from synergy to trade‐off. Natural conditions were weakly associated with spatial heterogeneity, market and demographic variables exhibited stronger associations before 2010, and policy‐related variables, especially farmland protection policy indicators, showed the strongest statistical associations thereafter. These findings provide one of the most comprehensive large‐scale and long‐term assessments of farmland multifunctionality transitions in China's grain regions. They highlight the importance of institutional arrangements in explaining spatial variation in trade‐offs and synergies, and underscore the need for integrated governance strategies that simultaneously promote productivity, ecological integrity, and rural social well‐being.