Blue Transformation Pathway for Nigeria and Africa: A Strategic Framework for Transitioning to 90%–95% Aquaculture Dominance by 2050

Abstract

The global fisheries sector is undergoing a structural transformation, with aquaculture surpassing capture fisheries in 2022 (51% of global aquatic animal supply) and reaching 53% by 2024, when aquaculture production topped 100 million tonnes for the first time. Despite vast aquatic resources, Africa produces only approximately 1.9% of global aquaculture output and remains dependent on declining capture fisheries. Nigeria exemplifies this imbalance: aquaculture contributes only 26% of domestic fish production, while the country faces an annual supply deficit exceeding 1.7 million metric tonnes and incurs import costs of USD 700 million–1.5 billion. This paper proposes a Blue Transformation Pathway (BTP), a phased strategic framework to transition Nigeria's fisheries sector to 90%–95% aquaculture dominance by 2050. The BTP comprises three phases: stabilization (2025–2030; ~20% aquaculture), expansion (2030–2040; ~42%), and dominance (2040–2050; 90%–95%), reflecting a smoothed 12.9% compound annual growth rate sustained across the full 28-year horizon. It is supported by seven implementation pillars, feed innovation, energy transition, infrastructure, finance, technology, human capital, and governance reform, plus three value-added pillars: blue carbon finance, knowledge economy development, and humanitarian aquaculture. Economic projections indicate potential creation of 5.9–12.6 million jobs, reduction of fish imports by up to USD 6.2 billion annually, and a GDP contribution of 5.5%–7.5% by 2050, with additional gains from Sargassum utilization. The study concludes that Nigeria's aquaculture transition is feasible and scalable, offering a replicable model for sustainable fisheries transformation across Africa.