TF-STNet: A Time-Frequency Dual-Branch Spatiotemporal Network for NWP-to-Station Bias Correction.

Abstract

Accurate station-scale weather forecasts support renewable-energy and transportation operations, yet gridded numerical weather prediction (NWP) is affected by representativeness errors and regional biases when transferred to irregularly distributed stations. We propose TF-STNet, a time-frequency dual-branch spatiotemporal network for NWP-to-station bias correction. A station-centered K-nearest-neighbor (KNN) operator retains multiple local NWP trajectories. The time-domain pathway separately encodes recent observations and future NWP, aligns them over the forecast horizon using gated dilated causal convolutions, and propagates lead-resolved states through a coordinate-conditioned directed station graph. The frequency-domain pathway learns spectral weights and applies separate attention to amplitude and phase across neighboring NWP cells. Prediction-level fusion combines the two station forecasts by variable, station, and lead time. The evaluation uses hourly data for wind speed, pressure, relative humidity, and temperature from 455 stations in Hebei, Shandong, Fujian, and Sichuan. Across five independent runs on 16 region-variable tasks, TF-STNet achieves the lowest mean absolute error (MAE) in 15 tasks and the highest Pearson correlation coefficient (PCC) in 15 tasks; its pressure MAE reduction relative to the strongest learned comparator ranges from 16.2% to 57.4% across the four regions. It has lower MAE than raw NWP in seven of eight high-wind or rapid-change event tests and than simple pressure model-output-statistics corrections in all four regions. The Shandong-temperature task and the Hebei-high-wind case illustrate the limits of the present point-forecast formulation.