Trends and Projections of Suicide and Medical Causes in India: A 56-Year Retrospective Analysis and Forecast (1966-2032) Using ARIMA Modelling.

Abstract

Background: Suicide is a major global public health challenge, claiming over 700,000 lives annually. India has one of the highest burdens, with a suicide rate of 12.5 per 100,000 population. Yet, the contribution of medical causes, including chronic illness, substance abuse, and infertility to suicide, in India remains poorly characterized.

Methods: We analyzed suicide trends in India from 1966 to 2022 using data from the National Crime Records Bureau (NCRB). The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model was applied to forecast suicide rates and medical causes for 2023-2032. Statistical analyses were performed using Python 3.7 and STATA 14.0, with trends stratified by age, gender, and cause. Model fit was assessed with Akaike Information Criterion and 95% confidence intervals.

Results: Suicide mortality in India increased steadily from 1966 to 2022, rising from 360,553 deaths in 1964-1972 to 1,422,631 deaths in 2013-2022. Males constituted nearly 70% of all deaths (989,178 male vs. 433,294 female deaths in 2013-2022), with the 18-30-year age group being the most affected (34.3%). Among medical causes, illness and drug addiction were the predominant contributors, with 68.3% of illness-related suicides occurring in males during 2013-2022. The NCRB classifies "illness" as a composite category that includes chronic physical diseases, mental illness, HIV/AIDS, cancer, and neurological conditions, without providing a disease-wise breakdown. Infertility-related suicides remained comparatively low. ARIMA (0, 2, 1) forecasting indicated that suicide rates will rise from 12.8 per 100,000 in 2023 to 13.1 per 100,000 by 2032.

Conclusions: Suicide in India is projected to continue rising, with young men disproportionately affected. Urgent, gender-sensitive interventions are needed, targeting chronic illness, substance abuse, and mental health support in underserved areas. Policy frameworks should prioritize integrating suicide prevention into primary care and chronic disease programs to mitigate future burden.