Genetic Prediction and Adverse Selection

IF 6.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI:10.3982/ECTA24284

Eduardo Azevedo, Jonathan P. Beauchamp, Richard Karlsson Linnér

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Recent advances have substantially improved our ability to predict disease risk with genetic data. In response, many countries have banned insurers from using genetic data, despite concerns about adverse selection. This paper measures adverse selection in a market where insurers can underwrite only on nongenetic information while consumers also have access to genetic information. We do so by combining methods from quantitative genetics, selection measures from economic theory, and genetic and electronic health record data on nearly 500,000 individuals in the UK Biobank. We focus on the critical illness insurance market and consider scenarios in which consumers have access to current or expected future genetic prediction technology. We find noticeable levels of selection with current prediction technology, and potentially crippling selection with expected future technology.

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遗传预测与逆向选择

最近的进展大大提高了我们利用基因数据预测疾病风险的能力。对此，许多国家禁止保险公司使用基因数据，尽管存在逆向选择的担忧。本文在保险公司只能承保非遗传信息而消费者也可以获得遗传信息的市场中测量逆向选择。我们通过结合定量遗传学的方法，经济理论的选择措施，以及英国生物银行近50万人的遗传和电子健康记录数据来做到这一点。我们专注于重大疾病保险市场，并考虑消费者可以使用当前或预期的未来基因预测技术的情况。我们发现，使用当前的预测技术会出现明显程度的选择，而使用预期的未来技术可能会出现严重的选择。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Econometrica 社会科学-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

11.00

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

期刊介绍： Econometrica publishes original articles in all branches of economics - theoretical and empirical, abstract and applied, providing wide-ranging coverage across the subject area. It promotes studies that aim at the unification of the theoretical-quantitative and the empirical-quantitative approach to economic problems and that are penetrated by constructive and rigorous thinking. It explores a unique range of topics each year - from the frontier of theoretical developments in many new and important areas, to research on current and applied economic problems, to methodologically innovative, theoretical and applied studies in econometrics. Econometrica maintains a long tradition that submitted articles are refereed carefully and that detailed and thoughtful referee reports are provided to the author as an aid to scientific research, thus ensuring the high calibre of papers found in Econometrica. An international board of editors, together with the referees it has selected, has succeeded in substantially reducing editorial turnaround time, thereby encouraging submissions of the highest quality. We strongly encourage recent Ph. D. graduates to submit their work to Econometrica. Our policy is to take into account the fact that recent graduates are less experienced in the process of writing and submitting papers.