The Role of Trade in Premature Deindustrialization and Industry Polarization

IF 6.2 1区经济学 Q1 ECONOMICS

Econometrica Pub Date : 2026-09-22 DOI:10.3982/ECTA20428

Michael Sposi, Kei-Mu Yi, Jing Zhang

引用次数: 0

Abstract

We document two key patterns of structural change: premature deindustrialization and rising industry polarization. Using a dynamic open-economy model with sector-biased technological change (SBTC), we evaluate the role of trade in these shifts. Trade alone does not cause premature deindustrialization, but its interaction with SBTC—transmitting global technological change, amplifying the decline in manufacturing's relative price over time, and generating manufacturing trade imbalances across countries—deepens premature deindustrialization over time. Industry polarization, by contrast, emerges only through trade-driven specialization, as countries diverge along lines of comparative advantage.

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贸易在过早去工业化和产业两极分化中的作用

我们记录了两种主要的结构变化模式：过早去工业化和产业两极分化加剧。我们使用具有部门偏向性技术变革（SBTC）的动态开放经济模型，评估了贸易在这些转变中的作用。贸易本身不会导致过早的去工业化，但它与sbtc的相互作用——传递全球技术变革，随着时间的推移放大制造业相对价格的下降，并在各国之间产生制造业贸易失衡——会随着时间的推移加深过早的去工业化。相比之下，产业两极化只有通过贸易驱动的专业化才会出现，因为各国沿着比较优势的路线分化。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Econometrica 社会科学-数学跨学科应用

CiteScore

11.00

自引率

3.30%

发文量

审稿时长

6-12 weeks

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