[Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Influencing Factors of Fossil Energy Carbon Emissions in Sichuan Province].

Abstract

To characterize the spatiotemporal evolution pattern and driving mechanisms of fossil energy carbon emissions in Sichuan Province， a carbon emission accounting framework covering energy extraction， transmission， and consumption stages was established. By integrating local Moran's I， LISA spatiotemporal clustering， and center of gravity migration methods， the study revealed the regional aggregation and dynamic migration features of carbon emissions. Furthermore， the STIRPAT model was combined with Pearson correlation analysis， ridge regression， and random forest methods to identify key driving factors. The results showed that：① Fossil energy carbon emissions in Sichuan Province exhibited a fluctuating upward trend， dominated by the energy consumption stage. ② Significant spatial heterogeneity and temporal differentiation were observed， with the northwest-southeast spatial distribution pattern of carbon emission， and the core of emission migrating northward， reflecting a transition from a "resource-based" to an "industry-based" regional pattern. Meanwhile， local aggregation intensified， with "high-high" clusters expanding from the early Panxi Region to the southern Sichuan Province urban agglomeration， resulting in increasingly prominent regional clustering. ③ From 2011 to 2021， Sichuan generally experienced weak decoupling， with carbon emission growth lagging behind GDP growth and improving emission efficiency. ④ Carbon emissions were strongly positively correlated with urbanization rate， freight turnover， GDP， and energy consumption （|r|0.63-0.94）， with extraction， transmission， and end-use consumption stages primarily driven by energy scale， logistics expansion， and economic and demographic factors， respectively.