[Spatio-temporal Evolution and Driving Mechanism of Carbon Storage in Honghe River Basin of Yunnan Province Based on PLUS-InVEST-Geodetector Model].

Abstract

Exploring the impact of land use on regional carbon storage and its spatial driving factors is of great significance for enhancing regional ecosystem carbon sinks and optimizing territorial space. This study takes the Honghe River Basin in Yunnan Province as an example， couples the PLUS-InVEST-Geodector model to deeply investigate the spatial evolution patterns of land use and carbon storage and their spatial driving causes from 2000 to 2020， and predicts and analyzes the evolution trends of land use and carbon storage in 2040 under four scenarios （natural development， farmland protection， carbon sink enhancement， and water resource protection）. The results are as follows： ① In the Honghe River Basin of Yunnan Province， the land use was dominated by cultivated land， forest， and grassland， accounting for approximately 17%， 62%， and 20%， respectively. The period from 2000 to 2010 saw the most intense land use change， with a total transition area of 3 410.52 km². ② From 2000 to 2020， the carbon storage in the Honghe River Basin of Yunnan Province generally presented a pattern of "high in the west and low in the east and middle，" with a cumulative loss of 4.28×10⁶ t. ③ Under the natural development scenario and the cultivated land protection scenario， carbon storage amounted to 1 483.75×10⁶ t and 1 480.60×10⁶ t， respectively， decreasing by 4.71×10⁶ t and 7.86×10⁶ t compared to the 2020 level. In contrast， the carbon sink enhancement scenario and the water resource protection scenario resulted in carbon storage of 1 488.68×10⁶ t and 1 489.62×10⁶ t， representing an increase of 0.22×10⁶ t and 1.16×10⁶ t relative to that in 2020. ④ NDVI （0.108 5）， soil erosion intensity （0.068 5）， and soil type （0.058 2） were the dominant factors influencing the spatial heterogeneity of carbon storage. The interaction effects between any two factors were stronger than those of individual factors， with the most significant synergistic effect observed for the interaction between NDVI and soil type （0.147 3）.