[Prediction of Ecosystem Service Evolution and Trade-off/Synergy Analysis in the Yangtze River Delta Region].

Abstract

Ecosystem services（ES） play a critical role in the context of high-quality ecological development in the new era. This study focuses on the Yangtze River Delta Region as the study area， employing the InVEST model to assess four key ecosystem services from 1990 to 2020， analyzing their spatiotemporal evolution patterns. Using the geographical detector model， we identify the dominant driving factors behind the spatial heterogeneity of these services. Additionally， GeoDa software is applied to conduct an in-depth analysis of the trade-offs and synergies among different ecosystem services. Finally， the PLUS model is utilized to simulate and predict the spatial distribution patterns of ecosystem services in 2030 under various development scenarios. The results showed： ① From 1990 to 2020， in the Yangtze River Delta Region， carbon storage and habitat quality were generally higher in the south and lower in the north and central areas. Food production， conversely， was higher in the north and lower in the south. Both habitat quality and soil conservation exhibited a distribution pattern with higher values in the south and southwest and lower values in the north. Water yield was primarily concentrated in the mountainous areas of Zhejiang and southern Anhui. ② Topography and elevation were the key factors influencing changes in carbon storage and soil conservation function， and population density was the key factor influencing changes in habitat quality， while annual precipitation was the primary driver influencing changes in water yield. Apart from topographic factors， precipitation and population density were the key factors influencing grain production. ③ Compared to the baseline year of 2020， the study area exhibited the following changes in ecosystem services under different scenarios： Under the natural development scenario， water yield and habitat quality increased， while carbon storage and soil retention decreased. Under the ecological protection scenario， carbon storage， water yield， and habitat quality all showed improvement. Finally， under the cropland protection scenario， carbon storage and soil retention increased， whereas water yield and habitat quality declined. This study provides valuable insights into the complex dynamics of ecosystem services in rapidly urbanizing regions， offering a scientific basis for regional ecological planning and sustainable development strategies.