[Effect and Mechanism of New Quality Productive Forces on Green Total Factor Productivity].

Abstract

Understanding the effect and mechanism of new quality productive forces （NQPF） on green total factor productivity （GTFP） is crucial for improving regional green development policies and promoting synergy between economic growth and environmental sustainability. Using panel data from 30 provincial-level administrative regions in China from 2012 to 2022， this study employs two-way fixed effects models， mediation effect models， and threshold regression models to systematically investigate the effects， transmission mechanisms， and regional heterogeneity of NQPF on GTFP. The results showed that NQPF significantly enhanced GTFP， and this conclusion remained robust under multiple tests. Technological innovation and resource allocation efficiency served as important mediating channels through which NQPF indirectly enhanced GTFP. When technological innovation or resource allocation efficiency surpassed certain thresholds， the marginal effect of NQPF on GTFP significantly increased， revealing a nonlinear escalation pattern. Moreover， the positive effect varied significantly across regions， being more pronounced in eastern， non-resource-based， and clean energy-dominated provinces， with stronger marginal effects. The findings suggest that future efforts should strengthen the synergy between technological innovation and resource allocation， implement region-specific green development strategies， and improve cross-regional green cooperation mechanisms to jointly enhance NQPF and GTFP， thereby supporting high-quality development.