[Spatial-temporal Characteristics Evolution of Land Use Carbon Emissions in China from 2000 to 2021 and Carbon Emission Prediction].

Abstract

The spatiotemporal evolution of carbon emissions and its future trend prediction， as an important scientific issue in response to global climate change， has become a key area of research in climate science， environmental science， and policy studies. As the world's largest emitter of carbon， China's land use changes have had a profound impact on the dynamic changes in carbon emissions. This study utilizes the annual land use dataset from Wuhan University， socioeconomic data from the China Statistical Yearbook， and MODIS global net primary productivity （NPP） data to examine the carbon emissions and carbon sequestration from various 3land types such as urban areas， arable land， and forest land in different regions. It systematically analyzes the specific impact of land use changes in China on carbon emissions from 2000 to 2021. Additionally， the study employs a Gaussian Process Regression （GPR） model for carbon emission forecasting and analyzes the spatial distribution of carbon emissions in relation to economic development using the Gini coefficient and the TAPIO decoupling model. The results indicate that： ① From 2000 to 2021， construction land expanded by 67.28% （2000-2021）， with an average annual growth rate exceeding 4%. Significant conversion of arable land occurred in the eastern region. Forest land/water body areas increased by 2.12% and 10.38%， respectively， with notable ecological restoration in the western region. Grassland， arable land， and unused land decreased by 1.86%-3.28%， showing clear characteristics of intensive land use. ② From 2000 to 2021， carbon emissions from construction land dominated in proportion， with total emissions increasing by 235% （an annual growth rate of 6.07%） and spatial diffusion extending to the central and western regions. Forest carbon sequestration increased by 16.6% （an annual growth rate of 0.77%）， while carbon absorption by grasslands slightly declined， and the carbon function differentiation between the eastern and western regions intensified. ③ The carbon emission Gini coefficient decreased from 0.592 2 in 2000 to 0.540 7 in 2021， indicating a more even distribution of carbon emissions. The carbon emissions of the top 10% grids increased from 108.9 million tons to 330.4 million tons， showing that high-emission areas were still driving the growth of carbon emissions. The internal differences in the western region were the largest （Gini coefficient of 0.847 3）. ④ From 2000 to 2013， China was in a "weak decoupling" state， with economic growth accompanied by an increase in carbon emissions. From 2014 to 2016， China entered a "strong decoupling" phase， where GDP growth occurred alongside a reduction in carbon emissions. From 2017 onwards， carbon emissions began to rise again， returning to a "weak decoupling" state. ⑤ The GPR model predicted that China's carbon emissions will peak in 2028， and carbon neutrality will be achieved before 2060. The western region has already become a carbon sink， while the central and eastern regions will reach their peak around 2027. The potential for carbon neutrality in regions like Tibet， Qinghai， and Inner Mongolia is significant， while heavy industrial provinces such as Shandong， Liaoning， and others face notable pressure， requiring collaborative solutions of carbon-negative technologies and ecological compensation.