Climate-conflict dynamics and food insecurity in Niger: the role of income diversification and external support

Abstract

Climate stress, particularly rising temperatures and adverse changes in biophysical factors, poses a major threat to agricultural systems and food security in developing countries. In the Sahel, and specially in Niger, increasing climate stress is compounded by episodes of civil unrest that erode household livelihoods and reduce their capacity to meet basic needs. Identifying household strategies that reduce sensitivity to temperature anomalies and conflicts is therefore critical for strengthening food security. This paper links spatially granular climate data (temperature and NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index)) and conflict events with four Living Standards Measurement Study rounds in Niger to evaluate how climate and conflict affect Household Dietary Diversity Score (HDDS). NDVI is used as a proxy for vegetation health and agricultural production potential; only negative anomalies are considered to isolate the effects of adverse growing conditions on food security. We estimate household fixed-effects models and interact climate and conflict measures with indicators of adaptation and resilience (organic fertilizer use, crop diversification, diversified income sources, electricity access, and receipt of assistance) to test whether these strategies mitigate adverse impacts on the HDDS. Results show that high temperature, lower NDVI, and local episodes of civil unrest are each associated with statistically significant declines in HDDS. Importantly, households that apply organic fertilizers, diversify crops, diversify income sources, have electricity access, or receive external assistance experience smaller losses in dietary diversity following climate stress and conflict events. Additionally, income sources diversification reduces the negative effects of climate and conflicts. These findings imply that promoting sustainable agricultural practices, supporting income diversification into less climate-sensitive activities, and scaling targeted assistance are effective options to bolster household resilience to the dual challenges of climate stress and conflict in Niger. The application is wider beyond the Sahel region.