Flash energy droughts in solar and wind resources under climate change

Abstract

Flash energy droughts, characterized by sharp declines and prolonged periods of low wind and solar generation, may pose potential challenges to power system operation. Yet, a clear understanding remains lacking regarding the system implications and how climate change may intensify them. Here we find that flash energy droughts may be associated with higher unserved energy, flexibility requirements and electricity costs. Such events show an uptrend under climate change, particularly in duration—by 25.6% for wind, 29.8% for solar and 155.7% for compound events under the SSP1-2.6 scenario. Notably, approximately 70.8% of global wind–solar power capacities face rising frequency and duration of flash energy droughts. While these widespread exposures could be mitigated through strategically prioritizing wind–solar farm deployment, the effectiveness largely depends on climate ambitions and the realization of technical potential. Our findings highlight the potential operational implications of flash energy droughts under climate change. Flash energy droughts, rapid drops followed by sustained low wind and solar production, could pose potential challenges to power system operations. Here researchers find that climate change may intensify such events across wind, solar and compound forms.