Spatially informed demand-side policies for green hydrogen diffusion in Europe

IF 70.1 1区材料科学 Q1 ENERGY & FUELS

Nature Energy Pub Date : 2026-09-17 DOI:10.1038/s41560-026-02126-2

Christian Rumpelnik, Behnam Zakeri, Kavita Surana

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Green hydrogen faces an implementation gap: demand substantially lags policy ambitions. Here, combining an installation-level model of green hydrogen demand with an original database of >14,000 potential offtakers in Europe, we show that, conditional on diffusion patterns mirroring natural gas power generation (a historical analogue), demand-side spatial considerations are critical for closing this gap. Spatial spillovers—where local adoption increases adoption likelihood nearby—strongly shape diffusion, and their effect rises (>20-fold) when green hydrogen is not cost competitive. Spillover potential is concentrated in Central–Western Europe and hard-to-abate sectors: over half of the 10% most central installations are located in five German or Belgian industrial regions. Spatially informed policies deliver superior outcomes: targeting the most central offtakers improves policy cost-effectiveness by up to 41% (€0.96 kg−1) in a size, sector and cost-controlled setting and 15% (€0.20 kg−1) when following the European Hydrogen Bank auction format.

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欧洲绿色氢扩散的空间信息需求侧政策

绿色氢面临实施缺口：需求大大滞后于政策目标。在这里，我们将绿色氢需求的安装级模型与欧洲bb1014000个潜在购买者的原始数据库相结合，我们表明，在与天然气发电（历史模拟）相对应的扩散模式的条件下，需求侧空间考虑对于缩小这一差距至关重要。空间溢出效应——本地采用增加附近采用的可能性——强烈地塑造了扩散，当绿色氢不具有成本竞争力时，其效应会上升（20倍）。溢出潜力集中在中欧和西欧难以减弱的部门：10%的中央装置中有一半以上位于德国或比利时的五个工业区。空间信息政策带来了卓越的结果：在规模、行业和成本控制的环境下，针对最集中的承购者，政策成本效益可提高41%（0.96欧元），在遵循欧洲氢能银行拍卖格式时，政策成本效益可提高15%（0.20欧元）。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

Nature Energy Energy-Energy Engineering and Power Technology

CiteScore

75.10

自引率

1.10%

发文量

193

期刊介绍： Nature Energy is a monthly, online-only journal committed to showcasing the most impactful research on energy, covering everything from its generation and distribution to the societal implications of energy technologies and policies. With a focus on exploring all facets of the ongoing energy discourse, Nature Energy delves into topics such as energy generation, storage, distribution, management, and the societal impacts of energy technologies and policies. Emphasizing studies that push the boundaries of knowledge and contribute to the development of next-generation solutions, the journal serves as a platform for the exchange of ideas among stakeholders at the forefront of the energy sector. Maintaining the hallmark standards of the Nature brand, Nature Energy boasts a dedicated team of professional editors, a rigorous peer-review process, meticulous copy-editing and production, rapid publication times, and editorial independence. In addition to original research articles, Nature Energy also publishes a range of content types, including Comments, Perspectives, Reviews, News & Views, Features, and Correspondence, covering a diverse array of disciplines relevant to the field of energy.