Impacts of Transient Critical Zone Evolution on Landslide Susceptibility and Hazard Across the Utuado Batholith, Puerto Rico

Abstract

Landscapes in humid climates often experience rapid chemical and mechanical weathering that can change groundwater fluxes, drainage pathways, and frictional strength via alterations in subsurface mineral composition and matrix porosity. These changes to hillslope critical zone structure and strength should control landslide susceptibility, size, and failure style. Here we test the impact of differential weathering on landslide failure processes by exploiting a natural experiment along the dioritic Utuado batholith in Puerto Rico's Cordillera Central, where a sharp weathering gradient follows an upstream-propagating knickzone into an uplifted shoreline platform that was affected by Hurricane Maria in 2017. Through a combination of landslide mapping, field geophysical and geotechnical surveys, topographic analysis, calibrated stream profile inversion, 3D back-analysis of hillslope strength, and debris-flow inundation assessments, we show that differential weathering induces changes to critical zone structure and consequently landslide susceptibility and hazard. Our mapping reveals that the hurricane-induced landslides preferentially cluster along less weathered hillslopes despite a marked increase in frictional strength. Jointly inverted seismic refraction and electrical resistivity profiles show that the frictionally weak, heavily weathered hillslopes are highly porous and dry, which we posit acts to stabilize slopes through limiting deeper hydrologic connectivity that can produce shallow water tables with destabilizing lateral seepage forces during storms. Debris-flow inundation mapping and analysis reveals that major contributors to debris-flow growth, channel steepness and landslide coalescence, scale linearly with hillslope friction angle. This leads to higher-mobility debris flows along knickzone reaches, which disproportionately affects communities at the base of the plateau.