Evaluation of Earthquake Cycle Progression for Major Cities in Turkey Using Nowcasting Approach

IF 2.1 4区地球科学 Q2 GEOCHEMISTRY & GEOPHYSICS

pure and applied geophysics Pub Date : 2026-08-29 DOI:10.1007/s00024-026-04088-8

Sonu Devi, Sumanta Pasari

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引用次数: 0

Abstract

Turkey lies at the junction of the Arabian, Anatolian, and Eurasian plates, making it one of the most seismically active regions globally. Timely seismic risk assessment is essential for effective disaster preparedness and mitigation. To provide a data-driven evaluation of regional earthquake hazard, we implement an area-based earthquake nowcasting framework for 24 major cities in Turkey using seismicity records from 1970 to 2025. The method employs natural time analysis, in which the cumulative counts of small-magnitude events between successive large earthquakes are used to quantify the evolving state of the seismic cycle. To model the natural times, eight reference probability distributions are evaluated. Among them, the Weibull probability distribution provides the best fit and therefore, it is used to compute the Earthquake Potential Score (EPS). The EPS quantifies the ongoing seismic-cycle progression on a scale from 0 to 100%. The resulting EPS values for M ≥ 6.5 earthquakes span from 29% to 84%, with high scores observed in cities such as Antalya (84%), Adiyaman (80%), Gaziantep (80%), Urfa (Şanlıurfa) (79%), İzmir (77%), and Kayseri (76%), indicating more advanced stages of the earthquake cycle. In contrast, lower EPS values in Trabzon (29%), Erzurum (34%), Kastamonu (49%), and Karabük (51%) suggest comparatively limited progression. Overall, these results provide a quantitative and easily interpretable snapshot of the current seismic state across Turkey, supporting relative hazard prioritization and preparedness planning in a tectonically complex region.

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用临近预报方法评价土耳其主要城市地震周期演变

土耳其位于阿拉伯板块、安纳托利亚板块和欧亚板块的交界处，是全球地震最活跃的地区之一。及时的地震风险评估对于有效备灾和减灾至关重要。为了提供数据驱动的区域地震危险性评估，我们利用1970年至2025年的地震活动记录，对土耳其24个主要城市实施了基于区域的地震临近预报框架。该方法采用自然时分析法，利用连续大地震之间小震级事件的累积次数来量化地震周期的演变状态。为了模拟自然时间，评估了八个参考概率分布。其中，威布尔概率分布的拟合效果最好，因此采用威布尔概率分布来计算地震潜在评分（EPS）。EPS量化了正在进行的地震周期的进展，范围从0到100%。所得的6.5级以上地震EPS值从29%到84%不等，安塔利亚（84%）、Adiyaman（80%）、加济安泰普（80%）、乌尔法（Şanlıurfa）（79%）、İzmir（77%）和开塞利（76%）等城市的EPS值较高，表明地震周期处于更高级的阶段。相比之下，Trabzon（29%）、Erzurum（34%）、Kastamonu（49%）和karab k（51%）的EPS值较低，表明进展相对有限。总的来说，这些结果提供了土耳其当前地震状态的定量和易于解释的快照，支持构造复杂地区的相对灾害优先级和准备规划。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

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来源期刊

pure and applied geophysics 地学-地球化学与地球物理

CiteScore

4.20

自引率

5.00%

发文量

240

审稿时长

9.8 months

期刊介绍： pure and applied geophysics (pageoph), a continuation of the journal "Geofisica pura e applicata", publishes original scientific contributions in the fields of solid Earth, atmospheric and oceanic sciences. Regular and special issues feature thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and state-of-the-art surveys. Long running journal, founded in 1939 as Geofisica pura e applicata Publishes peer-reviewed original scientific contributions and state-of-the-art surveys in solid earth and atmospheric sciences Features thought-provoking reports on active areas of current research and is a major source for publications on tsunami research Coverage extends to research topics in oceanic sciences See Instructions for Authors on the right hand side.