Assessing landslide probability changes under climate change scenarios as a basis for adaptation strategies

IF 4.9 2区工程技术 Q3 ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment Pub Date : 2026-09-14 DOI:10.1007/s10064-026-05309-z

Fang-Yi Chu, Chi-Wen Chen, Hsin-Chi Li

{"title":"Assessing landslide probability changes under climate change scenarios as a basis for adaptation strategies","authors":"Fang-Yi Chu, Chi-Wen Chen, Hsin-Chi Li","doi":"10.1007/s10064-026-05309-z","DOIUrl":null,"url":null,"abstract":"<div><p>Landslides are among the deadliest global disasters, with Taiwan facing frequent slope hazards due to its fragile geology and steep terrain. As climate change intensifies, stronger typhoons are expected to increase the risk of slope disasters. This study aims to simulate the landslide susceptibility of the Dahan River watershed in Taiwan under future climate scenarios and to develop impact maps to support stakeholder communication and climate adaptation planning. A total of 335 typhoon events, 166 from the base period and 169 projected for the end of the 21st century, were simulated using climate change projection rainfall data and the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model (TRIGRS). Results show that the maximum landslide probability increases from 14.0% to 22.4%, with higher risks concentrated in upstream areas. Based on interviews with disaster management agencies, the Xiuluan settlement was selected as a pilot site for applying the impact maps. These maps helped stakeholders understand future landslide impacts, enabling discussion and planning of adaptation strategies. The study demonstrates the value of multi-event simulation and impact mapping in climate change adaptation for slope hazards.</p></div>","PeriodicalId":500,"journal":{"name":"Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment","volume":"85 10","pages":""},"PeriodicalIF":4.9000,"publicationDate":"2026-09-14","publicationTypes":"Journal Article","fieldsOfStudy":null,"isOpenAccess":false,"openAccessPdf":"","citationCount":"0","resultStr":null,"platform":"Semanticscholar","paperid":null,"PeriodicalName":"Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment","FirstCategoryId":"5","ListUrlMain":"https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10064-026-05309-z","RegionNum":2,"RegionCategory":"工程技术","ArticlePicture":[],"TitleCN":null,"AbstractTextCN":null,"PMCID":null,"EPubDate":"","PubModel":"","JCR":"Q3","JCRName":"ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL","Score":null,"Total":0}

引用次数: 0

Abstract

Landslides are among the deadliest global disasters, with Taiwan facing frequent slope hazards due to its fragile geology and steep terrain. As climate change intensifies, stronger typhoons are expected to increase the risk of slope disasters. This study aims to simulate the landslide susceptibility of the Dahan River watershed in Taiwan under future climate scenarios and to develop impact maps to support stakeholder communication and climate adaptation planning. A total of 335 typhoon events, 166 from the base period and 169 projected for the end of the 21st century, were simulated using climate change projection rainfall data and the Transient Rainfall Infiltration and Grid-Based Regional Slope-Stability Model (TRIGRS). Results show that the maximum landslide probability increases from 14.0% to 22.4%, with higher risks concentrated in upstream areas. Based on interviews with disaster management agencies, the Xiuluan settlement was selected as a pilot site for applying the impact maps. These maps helped stakeholders understand future landslide impacts, enabling discussion and planning of adaptation strategies. The study demonstrates the value of multi-event simulation and impact mapping in climate change adaptation for slope hazards.

查看原文本刊更多论文

评估气候变化情景下滑坡概率的变化，作为适应策略的基础

山体滑坡是全球最致命的灾害之一，台湾由于其脆弱的地质和陡峭的地形，经常面临边坡灾害。随着气候变化的加剧，预计更强的台风将增加边坡灾害的风险。本研究旨在模拟未来气候情景下台湾大汉江流域的滑坡易感性，并绘制影响图，以支持利益相关者沟通和气候适应规划。利用气候变化预估降水资料和瞬态降雨入渗及网格化区域坡面稳定模式（TRIGRS）模拟了335次台风事件，其中166次为基期台风，169次为21世纪末预估台风。结果表明：最大滑坡概率由14.0%增加到22.4%，风险较高的地区集中在上游地区；根据对灾害管理机构的采访，我们选择秀銮定居点作为应用影响图的试验点。这些地图有助于利益攸关方了解未来滑坡的影响，促进讨论和规划适应战略。研究表明，多事件模拟和影响制图在边坡灾害气候变化适应中的价值。

本文章由计算机程序翻译，如有差异，请以英文原文为准。

求助全文

约1分钟内获得全文求助全文

来源期刊

Bulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment 工程技术-地球科学综合

CiteScore

7.10

自引率

11.90%

发文量

445

审稿时长

4.1 months

期刊介绍： Engineering geology is defined in the statutes of the IAEG as the science devoted to the investigation, study and solution of engineering and environmental problems which may arise as the result of the interaction between geology and the works or activities of man, as well as of the prediction of and development of measures for the prevention or remediation of geological hazards. Engineering geology embraces: • the applications/implications of the geomorphology, structural geology, and hydrogeological conditions of geological formations; • the characterisation of the mineralogical, physico-geomechanical, chemical and hydraulic properties of all earth materials involved in construction, resource recovery and environmental change; • the assessment of the mechanical and hydrological behaviour of soil and rock masses; • the prediction of changes to the above properties with time; • the determination of the parameters to be considered in the stability analysis of engineering works and earth masses.