Wildlife disease occurrence increases with changes to urban density, habitat connectivity and climate

Abstract

Increasing wildlife disease has been identified in urban areas, but the drivers of this increase remain unknown. Here, leveraging multi-city biomonitoring efforts across North America, we assessed whether greater occurrence of disease was correlated with urban characteristics, habitat connectivity loss and climate change. We focused on sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiei), an emerging panzootic disease, in coyotes (Canis latrans) using camera-trap images. Locally, disease occurrence was greater at sites with a higher urban intensity and in proximity to connectivity corridors. At the continental scale, disease occurrence was greater in cities with a higher human population density and fewer connectivity corridors. Following projected urban growth and climate change, we forecast an increase in mange occurrence across cities by 2050, most prominently at northern latitudes driven by a combined effect of urban densification and milder winters affecting host space-use overlap and host and mite survival. Urban planning for greater habitat connectivity and proactive disease management policies can improve wildlife welfare and limit the economic effects of zoonoses. Wildlife disease in urban areas is expanding but with unclear causes. Using camera-trap images, this study finds that sarcoptic mange in coyotes is increasing with greater urban density and milder winters across North America.