Land Use Diversification to Enhance Livelihood Resilience in the Face of Climate Change in Ethiopia.

Abstract

This study examines how different land use systems are associated with resilience to drought-induced food insecurity in Ethiopia using a comparative case study of three districts representing monocropping (Bale), agroforestry (Sidama), and woodlot-based systems (Awi). The analysis integrates crop damage data from the Central Statistical Agency (CSA) with food aid priority classifications and postdrought food security outcomes from the Integrated Food Security Phase Classification (IPC) and food aid priority area map from World Food Program (WFP), Inter-Agency Humanitarian Evaluation (IAHE) and United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA). Results show marked differences in drought impacts across systems. During the 2015-2016 drought, Bale (monocropping) experienced the highest crop losses (54,354 ha; 0.29 ha per affected person), followed by Sidama (agroforestry) (6629 ha; 0.19 ha per person) and Awi (woodlot) (3802 ha; 0.02 ha per person). Normalized against projected 2016 zone populations, Bale also records the highest area loss per 1000 inhabitants (30.8 ha, vs. 3.1 in Awi and 1.8 in Sidama), although the share of the zone population reporting crop damage was highest in Awi (15.4%). Postdrought IPC classifications further indicate higher food insecurity in Bale, where 60% of the population was classified in Phase 2 or above, compared with 30% in Sidama, whereas Awi did not meet the threshold for IPC classification. These patterns suggest that, within the studied contexts, diversified land use systems particularly agroforestry- and woodlot-based practices are associated with lower exposure to drought impacts and reduced food insecurity. However, these relationships are context-specific and reflect the combined influence of land use systems and broader agroecological and socioeconomic conditions. In particular, mean annual rainfall differs more than twofold across the study districts, and the woodlot district is also the wettest, so baseline moisture availability cannot be separated from land use configuration as an explanation of the observed differences. The findings are therefore indicative rather than causal, but they highlight the potential role of land use diversification as part of strategies to enhance resilience to climate variability.